Single-Transferable Vote in the United States

Over the years, I have been fascinated by different voting systems and how they can be used to make our system of governance more democratic. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has become very popular amongst Democrats in the United States over the past few years. The bill would circumvent our current Electoral College system of choosing presidents and replace it with a system that would ensure that the candidate with the most votes would be elected president. While certainly a big improvement over the current system, electing presidents through a national popular vote in this manner would leave a lot to be desired.

An improvement on this system that many support is ranked choice, or instant run-off, voting. In this method, voters rank the candidates by preference. If no candidate reaches 50% of the vote by first preference, the votes of the candidate with the lowest tally of votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to each voter’s second choice. This process continues until a candidate receives 50% vote and is declared the winner. In effect, ranked choice voting simulates a full run-off process “instantaneously”. This ensures that a candidate needs approval from a majority of voters and eliminates the “spoiler effect” of third-party candidates taking away votes from their voters’ preferred candidate.

On it’s surface, ranked choice voting should help third parties grow and give us greater diversity of opinion in American politics. But, it will only do so much. In all likelihood, the two major parties will still dominate presidential elections. Generally, third parties are less broadly appealing than major parties, and it will be difficult for them to gain the broad support necessary to win an election for a nation-wide office.

Instead of focusing on presidential politics, the focus for third parties should be getting representation in Congress. In healthy multi-party systems, there are usually only two parties that have a realistic shot at being elected president/prime minister, but legislatures are full of many different parties representing a wide-range of factions. With no one party controlling a majority, third parties can negotiate with bigger parties to form a governing coalition. This process gives voice to those who would otherwise be unrepresented.

So how can America create a more diverse and democratic legislature? The answer lies in proportional representation. The idea behind proportional representation is that the composition of a legislature should match the composition of the voters. In other words, if 40% of voters of member of a party, then that party should have 40% of the seats in the legislature. One method of achieving this is referred to as party list proportional representation. In a party list system, instead of voting for candidates, voters vote for a party to determine how many seats each party get in a legislature.

In the United States where elections have traditionally been run by states, people might find the idea of a national party telling them who will represent them unappealing. Ideally, there would be a voting system that would be proportional but still allow for local representation. Fortunately, there is such a system.

Single Transferable Vote

Single transferable vote is a proportional voting system comprised of multi-member congressional districts. Multi-member congressional districts are represented by multiple (usually between 3 and 7) congressmen instead of the usual one congressman per district. To make this work, districts will usually make up a larger geographical area. As an example, a state with 15 districts currently can be split up into three five-member districts.

The actual election procedure in single transferable vote is an extension of ranked choice voting. CGP Grey has a great YouTube video detailing how the system works. The end result is that each district ends up with representation that is proportional to the population of voters. As an example, if there is a five-member district that is 60% Democrat and 40% Republican, it would end up with three Democrat representatives and two Republican representatives. In our current, easily-gerrymandered system, Republicans in this scenario could end up with only one representative or even no representation at all. This means a huge group of voters could end up extremely underrepresented by their supposed representatives.

A Detailed Look at How Single Transferable Vote can Work in the US

In my many hours of internet-based research and time-wasting about voting systems, I have yet to come across any specifics on what single transferable vote could look like in the United States. So, I decided to cook up a little something myself.

My Process

The first problem I considered is that many smaller states wouldn’t be able reap the full benefits of single transferable vote. A state with only one or two representatives can’t really have proportional representation. So why not give states more representatives? In the first Congress under our Constitution, there was a representative for 1 in every 30,000 people. There was even a constitutional amendment that was one state short of making this ratio of representatives to citizens permanent. If that amendment has passed, we would have around 10,000 congressmen today. That would be quite unwieldy, but the size of our Congress regularly went up with population until stopping suddenly at 435 in 1911.

Political scientists have observed what is known as the cube root rule for the size of a legislature. The cube root rule says that the size of legislatures across the globe tend to be the cube root of a country’s population. The United States roughly followed this rule up until 1911. Based on our estimated 2019 population (including DC and Puerto Rico), that would give us 692 representatives in the House, which will be my starting point.

As you might figure, then, Puerto Rico and DC will both be given representatives in this system in the name of democracy. Even if they are not given statehood, I think it is appropriate that they are given some sort of voting representation in Congress. Along with Puerto Rico and DC, I also included one representative for the remaining US territories of Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands. I added these representatives on top of our 692 to give us a total of 696 representatives in the House.

To determine the size of each district, I tried to shoot for five congressional members for each district. Five seems like the right balance between being big enough to be properly proportional and being small enough so that constituents actually know who all their representatives are. For any state whose size didn’t allow for a neat five members for district, I kept district sizes between four and seven members.

For states where there were several ways to break things down, I tried to consider the regional identities within the state to determine how many districts the state should be split into. As a example, Tennessee would have 14 congressional members under this system. This could be split into two seven-member districts or three districts with five, five, and four members. Since Tennessee has historically been split into thirds (East, Middle, and West Tennessee), I decided on three congressional districts which roughly followed these regions. I am not a expert of all the various regions of every US state, but I did my best to consider these things when drawing the congressional districts.

For all the maps and data from each district, I used Dave’s Redistricting tool. To determine competitiveness of each district, a seat was considered competitive if one party could gain or lose a seat by gaining or losing 5% from their current composite election results.

Alabama

Under this system, Alabama would have 10 representatives. This would be split up into two five-member districts. There is a northern district that includes the Birmingham metro area along with Huntsville. There is also a southern district that includes the Montgomery metro area along with Mobile, Auburn, Dothan, and Tuscaloosa.

In the 2020 election, Alabama’s 7representatives were split 7–1 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the northern district would lean Republican 3–1 with 1 competitive seat, and the southern district would lean Republican 3–2. Overall, Alabama’s expected state lean would be 6–3 Republican with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 6.3 seats and Democrats 3.7 seats on average.

Alaska

Under this system, Alaska would have 2 representatives which would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 elections, Alaska’s 1 representative was a Republican. Under single transferable vote, Alaska would be expected to have 1 Republican representative and 1 Democrat representative. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 1.0 seats and Democrats 0.8 seats on average.

Arizona

Under this system, Arizona would have 15 representatives. This would be split up into three five-person districts. Metro Phoenix is split up into two districts. One is for the northern part of Phoenix including Phoenix proper, Glendale, and Scottsdale; and the other is for the southern part of Phoenix including Mesa, Tempe and most of Pinal County. The last district is made up of the rest of Arizona (we’ll call this the outer district).

In the 2020 election, Arizona’s 9 representatives were split 5–4 Republican. Under single transferable vote, each district would be split 2–2 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Arizona would be split 6–6 with 3 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 7.8 seats and Democrats 6.7 seats on average.

Arkansas

Under this system, Arkansas would have 6 representatives all sharing one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, all 4 of Arkansas’ representatives were Republican. Under single transferable vote, Arkansas’ one district would be expected to lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 3.7 seats and Democrats 2.1 seats on average.

California

Under this system, California would have 82 representatives. This would be split into two six-member districts (both in Los Angeles County) and fourteen five-member districts. A breakdown of each district can be found in the table on the left.

In the 2020 election, California’s 53 representatives were split 42–11 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, California’s representatives would be expected to lean Democrat 49–22 with 11 competitive seats. For a breakdown of how each district would vote, see the table. A perfectly proportional system would give 51.2 seats to Democrats and 29.5 seats to Republicans on average. Third parties as a whole would pick up 1.3 seats on average.

Colorado

Under this system, Colorado would have 12 representatives. This would be split into two six-member districts, one for Metro Denver and another for the rest of Colorado, which we will call the outer district.

In the 2020 election, Colorado’s 7 representative were split 4–3 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, the Metro Denver district would lean Democrat 3–2 with 1 competitive seat while the outer district would lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Colorado would be split 5–5 with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 6.2 seats and Republicans 5.4 seats on average.

Connecticut

Under this system, Connecticut would have 7 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, all 5 of Connecticut’s representatives were Democrats. Under single transferable vote, Connecticut would be expected to lean Democrat 4–2 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 4.1 seats and Republicans 2.9 seats on average.

Delaware

Under this system, Delaware would have 2 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, Delaware’s only representative was a Democrat. Under single transferable vote, Delaware would be expected to be split 1–1. A perfectly proportional system would be give Democrats 1.1 seats and Republicans 0.8 seats on average.

District of Columbia

Under this system, DC would have 2 representatives who would share one district.

DC does not currently have any voting representation in Congress. Under single transferable vote, DC would be expected to give both of its seats to Democrats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 1.8 seats and Republicans 0.1 seats on average.

Florida

Under this system, Florida would have 45 representatives. This would be split into nine five-member districts. A breakdown of each district can be found in the table below.

In the 2020 election, Florida’s 27 representatives were split 16–11 Republican. Under single transferable vote, Florida would be expected to lean Republican 21–20 with 4 competitive seats. For a breakdown of how each district would be expected to vote, see the table below. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 22.6 seats and Democrats 21.5 seats on average.

Georgia

Under this system, Georgia would have 22 representatives. This would be split up into four districts, two six-member districts and two five-member districts. There is a district for North Georgia, Central Georgia, South Georgia, and Metro Atlanta. The North Georgia district includes some of the northern suburbs of Atlanta including most notably Cobb County. The Central Georgia district includes mid-size cities of Athens, Augusta, and Columbus. The South Georgia district includes the cities of Savannah and Macon.

In the 2020 election, Georgia’s 14 representatives were split 8–6 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the Central and South Georgia districts would be expected to lean Republican 3–2, North Georgia would lean Republican 4–1 with 1 competitive seat, and Metro Atlanta would lean Democrat 4–2. In total, Republicans would be expected to have 12 seats and Democrats would have 9 seats with 1 remaining competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give 11.6 seats to Republicans and 10.0 seats to Democrats on average.

Hawaii

Under this system, Hawaii would have 3 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, both of Hawaii’s 2 representatives were Democrat. Under single transferable vote, Hawaii would be expected to lean Democrat 2–0 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 2.0 seats and Republicans 0.9 seats on average.

Idaho

Under this system, Idaho would have 4 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, both of Idaho’s 2 representatives were Republican. Under single transferable vote, Idaho would lean Republican 2–1 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 2.6 seats and Democrats 1.3 seats on average.

Illinois

Under this system, Illinois would have 26 representatives. This would be split up into one six-member district and four five-member districts. The six-member district contains Chicago proper. There is a five-member district that contains the rest of Cook County, and another five-member district that contains the rest of the Chicago metropolitan area (“outer” Chicago). There is a district for the rest of Northern Illinois including the Peoria metro area, and another district for Southern Illinois including Springfield and Urbana-Champaign.

In the 2020 election, Illinois’ 18 representatives were split 13–5 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, the Chicago district would be expected to lean Democrat 5–0 with 1 competitive seat, and the Cook County district would lean Democrat 3–1 with 1 competitive seat. The districts of outer Chicago metro, Northern Illinois, and Southern Illinois would all be split 2–2 with 1 competitive seat each. Overall, Illinois would lean Democrat 14–7 with 5 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 14.5 seats and Republicans 10.3 seats on average. Third parties as a whole would pick up 1.1 seats on average.

Indiana

Under this system, Indiana would have 14 representatives. This would be split up into two seven-member districts, a Northern Indiana district containing Fort Wayne, Gary, and South Bend; and a Southern Indiana district containing the Indianapolis metro area.

In the 2020 election, Indiana’s 9 representatives were split 7–2 Republican. Under single transferable vote, each district would be expected to lean Republican 4–2 with 1 remaining competitive seat. The overall state lean would be 8–4 Republican with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give 8.1 seats to Republicans and 5.9 seats to Democrats on average.

Iowa

Under this system, Iowa would have 7 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, Iowa’s 3 representatives were split 3–1 Republican. Under single transferable vote, Iowa would be split 3–3 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 3.3 seats and Democrats 3.3 seats on average.

Kansas

Under this system, Kansas would have 6 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, Kansas’ 4 representatives were split 3–1 Republican. Under single transferable vote, Kansas would be expected to lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 3.4 seats and Democrats 2.3 seats on average.

Kentucky

Under this system, Kentucky would have 9 representatives. This would be split into a five-member and a four-member district. The five-member district would include the western part of the state including Louisville and Bowling Green. The four-member district would be made up of the eastern part of the state including Lexington, Frankfort, and the Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati.

In the 2020 election, Kentucky’s 6 representatives were split 5–1 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the western district would lean Republican 3–2 and the eastern district would lean Republican 2–1 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Kentucky would lean Republican 5–3 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 5.2 seats and Democrats 3.7 seats on average.

Louisiana

Under this system, Louisiana would have 10 representatives. This would be split up into two five-member districts. There would be an eastern district comprised mostly of area east of the Mississippi River and including New Orleans and Baton Rouge. There would also be a western district comprising of most of the area west of the Mississippi and including Lafayette, Monroe, and Shreveport.

In the 2020 elections, Louisiana’s 6 representatives were split 5–1 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the eastern district would be split 2–2 with 1 competitive seat, and the western district would be lean Republican 3–1 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Louisiana would be expected to lean Republican 5–3 with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 5.9 seats and Democrats 4.0 seats on average.

Maine

Under this system, Maine would have 3 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, both of Maine’s 2 representatives were Democrat. Under single transferable vote, Maine would be expected to be split 1–1 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 1.6 seats and Republicans 1.3 seats on average.

Maryland

Under this system, Maryland would have 13 representatives. This would be split up into a six-member and a seven-member district. The western district includes the Maryland panhandle and DC area. The eastern district includes the Baltimore area and the Eastern Shore.

In the 2020 election, Maryland’s 8 representatives were split 7–1 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, the western district would have a Democrat lean 4–1 with 1 competitive seat. The eastern district would have be split 3–3 with 1 competitive seat. In total, Maryland would lean 7–4 Democrat with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 7.8 seats and Republicans 4.9 seats on average.

Massachusetts

Under this system, Massachusetts would have 14 representatives. This would be split up into two seven-member districts. The northeastern district includes Boston and its northern suburbs while the southeastern district includes the rest of the state.

In the 2020 election, all 9 of Massachusetts’ representatives were Democrats. Under single transferable vote, the northeastern district would lean Democrat 4–2 with 1 competitive seat. The southeastern district would be split 3–3 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Massachusetts’ lean would be 7–5 Democrat with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 8.1 seats and Republicans 5.6 seats on average.

Michigan

Under this system, Michigan would have 21 representatives. This would be split into a six-member and three five-member districts. The six-member district would include Detroit and some of its suburbs. There would be a five-member district for Northern Michigan including the Upper Peninsula and stretching down to Grand Rapids; one for Central Michigan including Flint, Saginaw, and northern suburbs of Detroit; and one for Southern Michigan including Lansing, Ann Arbor and Kalamazoo.

In the 2020 election, Michigan’s 14 representatives were evenly split 7–7. Under single transferable vote, the Detroit district would be expected to lean Democrat 4–1 with 1 competitive seat, while the other three districts would be split 2–2 with 1 competitive seat each. Overall, Michigan would lean Democrat 10–7 with 4 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 10.8 seats and Republicans 9.6 seats on average.

Minnesota

Under this system, Minnesota would have 12 representatives. This would be split into two six-member districts. One district would contain the Twin Cities area while the other would contain the rest of the state (“outer” Minnesota).

In the 2020 election, Minnesota’s 8 representatives were evenly split 4–4. Under single transferable vote, the Twin Cities district would be expected to lean Democrat 3–2 with 1 competitive seat while the outer Minnesota district would lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Minnesota would be split 5–5 with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 6.3 seats and Republicans 5.2 seats on average.

Mississippi

Under this system, Mississippi would have 6 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, Mississippi’s 4 representatives were split 3–1 Republican. Under single transferable vote, Mississippi would be expected to lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 3.4 seats and Democrats 2.6 seats on average.

Missouri

Under this system, Missouri would have 13 representatives. This would be split into a six-member and a seven-member district. The six-member northwestern district would contain Kansas City, as well as Springfield. The seven-member southeastern district would contain St. Louis, as well as Columbia and Jefferson City.

In the 2020 election, Missouri’s 8 representatives were split 6–2 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the northwestern district would lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. The southeastern district would be split 3–3 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Missouri’s state lean would be 6–5 Republican with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 6.9 seats and Democrats 5.7 seats on average.

Montana

Under this system, Montana would have 2 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, Montana’s only representative was Republican. Under single transferable vote, Montana would be expected to be split 1–1. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 1.1 seats and Democrats 0.9 seats on average.

Nebraska

Under this system, Nebraska would have 4 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, All 3 of Nebraska’s representatives were Republican. Under single transferable vote, Nebraska would be expected to lean Republican 2–1 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 2.4 seats and Democrats 1.5 seats.

Nevada

Under this system, Nevada would have 6 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, Nevada’s 4 representatives were split 3–1 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, Nevada would be expected to lean Democrat 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 3.0 seats and Republicans 2.7 seats on average.

New Hampshire

Under this system, New Hampshire would have 3 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, both of New Hampshire’s 2 representatives were Democrat. Under single transferable vote, New Hampshire would be expected to be split 1–1 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 1.4 seats and Republicans 1.5 seats on average.

New Jersey

Under this system, New Jersey would have 19 representatives. This would be split into one seven-member district and two six-member districts. The seven-member district would contain the New York and Newark metro area. One of the six-member districts would represent the rest of North Jersey and the other six-member district would represent South Jersey.

In the 2020 election, New Jersey’s 12 representatives were split 10–2 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, the New York-Newark district would be expected to lean Democrat 4–2 with 1 competitive seat, and both the North Jersey and South Jersey districts would lean Democrat 3–2 with 1 competitive seat each. Overall, New Jersey would lean Democrat 10–6 with 3 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 11.0 seats and Republicans 8.0 seats on average.

New Mexico

Under this system, New Mexico would have 4 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, New Mexico’s 3 representatives were split 2–1 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, New Mexico would be expected to lean Democrat 2–1 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 2.2 seats and Republicans 1.5 seats on average.

New York

Under this system, New York would have 41 representatives. This would be split up into one six-member and seven five-member districts. A breakdown of each district can be found in the table.

In the 2020 election, New York’s 27 representatives were split 20–7 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, New York would be expected to lean Democrat 23–11 with 7 competitive seats. For a breakdown for how each district would vote, see the table. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 25.8 seats and Republicans 15.2 seats on average.

North Carolina

Under this system, North Carolina would have 22 representatives. This would be split into two six-member districts and two five-member districts. The six member districts would represent Metro Charlotte and Eastern Carolina, which includes the cities of Wilmington and Fayetteville. The five-member districts would represent the Research Triangle (Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill) and Western Carolina including Winston Salem and Greensboro.

In the 2020 election, North Carolina’s 13 representatives were split 8–5 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the Metro Charlotte district and Eastern Carolina districts would be expected to lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat each. The Western Carolina district would be split 2–2 with 1 competitive seat. The Research Triangle district would lean Democrat 3–2. Overall, North Carolina would lean Republican10–9 with 3 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 11.0 seats and Democrats 10.5 seats in average.

North Dakota

Under this system, North Dakota would have 2 representatives who would share one statewide districts.

In the 2020 election, North Dakota’s only representative was Republican. Under single transferable vote, North Dakota would lean Republican 1–0 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 1.3 seats and Democrats 0.6 seats on average.

Ohio

Under this system, Ohio would have 24 representatives. This would be split into four six-member districts. The districts roughly match the Ohio regions of Northeastern Ohio (Cleveland), Northwestern Ohio (Toledo), Central Ohio (Columbus), and Southern Ohio (Cincinnati and Dayton). The Northwestern Ohio district wraps around to include Canton and Youngtown of the outer Cleveland area.

In the 2020 election, Ohio’s 16 representatives were split 12–4 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the Northeastern Ohio district would lean Democrat 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. The other three districts would lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Ohio’s lean would be 11–9 Republican with 4 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 13.4 seats and Democrats 10.5 seats on average.

Oklahoma

Under this system, Oklahoma would have 8 representatives. This would be split into two four-member districts. the southwestern district would include the Oklahoma City metro area, and the northeastern district would include the Tulsa metro area and stretch westward to the Oklahoma Panhandle.

In the 2020 election, all 5 of Oklahoma’s representatives were Republican. Under single transferable vote, the southwestern district would be expected to lean Republican 2–1 with 1 competitive seat, and the northeastern district would be expected to lean Republican 3–1. Overall, Oklahoma would lean Republican 5–2 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 5.2 seats and Democrats 2.5 seats on average.

Oregon

Under this system, Oregon would have 9 representatives. This would be split into a five-member and a four-member district. The five-member northern district includes the Portland metro area. The four-member southern district includes Salem, Eugene, and Bend.

In the 2020 election, Oregon’s 5 representatives were split 4–1 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, the northern district would be expected to lean Democrat 3–1 with 1 competitive seat and the southern district would be evenly split 2–2. Overall, Oregon would lean Democrat 5–3 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 4.9 seats and Republicans 3.5 seats on average.

Pennsylvania

Under this system, Pennsylvania would have 27 representatives. This would be split into two six-member and three five-member districts. The two six-member districts would represent Metro Philadelphia and Greater Pittsburgh. There would be a five-member for Northern Pennsylvania, including Erie, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre; a five-member district for Southern Pennsylvania, which includes Harrisburg, Lancaster, Lebanon, and York; and a five-member district for the outer Philadelphia-Lehigh Valley including Allentown, Easton, and Reading.

In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania’s 18 representative’s were split evenly 9–9. Under single transferable vote, the Metro Philadelphia district would lean Democrat 4–1 with 1 competitive seat, the Greater Pittsburgh district would be split 3–3, and the Southern Pennsylvania district would lean Republican 3–2. The Northern Pennsylvania district and outer Philadelphia-Lehigh Valley would both be split 2–2 with 1 competitive seat each. Overall, Pennsylvania would lean Democrat 13–11 with 3 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 14.0 seats and Republicans 12.5 seats on average.

Puerto Rico

Under this system, Puerto Rico would have 7 representatives who would share one commonwealth-wide district.

Puerto Rico currently doesn’t have any voting representation in Congress. Politics in Puerto Rico are a little different than on the mainland. Instead of Democratic and Republican parties, Puerto Rico has the Popular Democratic Party and New Progressive Party. The Popular Democratic Party usually caucuses with Democrats while the New Progressive Party tends to be split between Democrat and Republican.

Under single transferable vote, Puerto Rico’s representatives would be evenly split 3–3 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give the New Progressive Party 3.3 seats and the Popular Democratic Party 3.2 seats on average.

Rhode Island

Under this system, Rhode Island would have 2 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, both of Rhode Island’s 2 representatives were Democrat. Under single transferable vote, Rhode Island would lean Democrat 1–0 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 1.2 seats and Republican 0.6 seats on average.

South Carolina

Under this system, South Carolina would have 11 representatives. This would be split into a six-member and a five-member district. The six-member district would represent Upstate South Carolina including Columbia, Greenville, Spartanburg, Anderson, and Rock Hill. The five-member district would represent Lowcountry South Carolina including Charleston, Florence, Hilton Head, and Myrtle Beach.

In the 2020 election, South Carolina’s 7 representatives were split 6–1 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the Upstate South Carolina district would lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat while the Lowcountry South Carolina district would be split 2–2 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, South Carolina would lean Republican 5–4 with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 6.3 seats and Democrats 4.5 seats on average.

South Dakota

Under this system, South Dakota would have 2 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, South Dakota’s only representative was Republican. Under single transferable vote, South Dakota would be expected to lean Republican 1–0 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 1.2 seats and Democrats 0.7 seats on average.

Tennessee

Under this system, Tennessee would have 14 representatives. This would be split into two five-member districts and one four-member district. The five-member districts roughly line up with Eastern and Middle Tennessee while the four-member district includes all of Western Tennessee plus the southern bit of Middle Tennessee.

In the 2020 election, Tennessee’s 9 representatives were split 7–2 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the Eastern Tennessee district would lean Republican 3–1 with 1 competitive district, the Middle Tennessee district would lean Republican 3–2, and the Western Tennessee district would be split 2–2. Overall, Tennessee would have a lean of 8–5 with 1 competitive district. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 8.5 seats and Democrats 5.2 seats.

Texas

Under this system, Texas would have 60 representatives. This would be split into twelve five-member districts. A breakdown of each district can be found in the table.

In the 2020 election, Texas’ 36 representatives were split 23–13 Republican. Under single transferable vote, Texas would be expected to lean Republican 32–21 with 7 competitive seat. A breakdown of how each district would can be found in the table. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 35.2 seats and Democrats 24.1 seats on average.

Utah

Under this system, Utah would have 7 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, Utah’s 4 representatives were all Republican. Under single transferable vote, Utah would lean Republican 5–1 with 1 competitive seat. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 4.8 seats and Democrats 1.9 seats on average.

Vermont

Under this system, Vermont would have just 1 representative who would represent the whole state much like in the current system.

In the 2020 election, that representative was a Democrat. The seat is solid Democrat and would continue to be so under single transferable vote. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 0.6 seats and Republicans 0.3 seats in average.

Virginia

Under this system, Virginia would have 18 representatives. This would be split into three six-member districts. There would be a district for Northern Virginia (DC area), central Virginia (Richmond, Charlottesville, and Lynchburg), and southern Virginia (Hampton Roads and the rest of southern Virginia).

In the 2020 election, Virginia’s 11 representatives were split 7–4 Democrats. Under single transferable vote, the Northern Virginia district would lean 4–2 Democrat, and the other two districts would be split 3–3. Overall, Virginia’s lean would be 10–8 Democrat. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 9.7 seats and Republicans 8.0 seats on average.

Washington

Under this system, Washington would have 16 representatives. This would be split into a six-member and two five-member districts. The six-member district would contain Metro Seattle including Bellevue and Everett. One of the five-member districts would contain most of the rest of Western Washington including Olympia and Tacoma, and the other five-member district would contain Eastern Washington including Spokane, Vancouver, and Yakima.

In the 2020 election, Washington’s 10 representatives were split 7–3 Democrat. Under single transferable vote, the Metro Seattle district would lean Democrat 4–1 with 1 competitive seat, the Western Washington district would lean Democrat 3–2, and the Eastern Washington district would be split 2–2 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Washington would lean Democrat 9–5 with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 9.3 seats and Republicans 6.5 seats on average.

West Virginia

Under this system, West Virginia would have 4 representatives who would share one statewide district.

In the 2020 election, all of West Virginia’s 3 representatives were Republican. Under single transferable vote, West Virginia would lean Republican 3–1. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 2.7 seats and Democrats 1.3 seats on average.

Wisconsin

Under this system, Wisconsin would have 12 representatives. This would be split into two six-member districts. The eastern district would include the Milwaukee area and stretch along Lake Michigan to include Kenosha to the south and Green Bay to the north. The western district would include Madison, Appleton, Oshkosh, Eau Claire, Janesville, and La Crosse.

In the 2020 election, Wisconsin’s 8 representatives were split 5–3 Republican. Under single transferable vote, the eastern district would be expected to lean Republican 3–2 with 1 competitive seat and the western district would be expected to lean Democrat 3–2 with 1 competitive seat. Overall, Wisconsin would be evenly split 5–5 with 2 competitive seats. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 5.7 seats and Democrats 6.0 seats on average.

Wyoming

Under this system, Wyoming would have just 1 representative who would represent the whole state much like in the current system.

In the 2020 election, that representative was a Republican. The seat is solid Republican and would continue to be so under single transferable vote. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 0.7 seats and Democrats 0.3 seats on average.

American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, & US Virgin Islands

Under this system, the territories of American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, and US Virgin Islands would all get 1 representative each in Congress. Currently, these territories do not have any voting representation in Congress.

In American Samoa, gubernatorial elections are nonpartisan, but they do elect a non-voting member of the House of Representatives. In recent elections, this seat has been solidly Republican and would be expected to remain so under single-transferable vote. A perfectly proportional system would give Republicans 0.6 seats and Democrats 0.3 seats on average.

In Guam, recent elections suggest that their congressional seat would likely be competitive between Democrats and Republicans. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 0.5 seats and Republicans 0.4 seats on average.

In the Northern Marianas Islands, there is a strong presence of independent politicians. The current non-voting member of the House of Representatives is an independent who caucuses with Democrats. In this system, their congressional seat would be expected to be competitive between Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Based on recent elections, a perfectly proportional system would give independents 0.5 seats, Republicans 0.3 seats, and Democrats 0.2 seats on average.

In the US Virgin Islands, there is a strong presence of independent politicians that act as opposition to the otherwise dominant Democratic Party. Their non-voting member of Congress has been solidly Democrat in recent years and would be expected to remain so under single transferable vote. A perfectly proportional system would give Democrats 0.6 seats and independents 0.3 seats on average.

Summary

Under this system, using recent election data, Democrats (including Puerto Rico’s PDP) would have 312 solid seats and Republicans (including Puerto Rico’s NPP) would have 285 solid seats with 99 competitive seats nationwide. According to Dave’s Redistricting, our current system has 165 solid Republican seats and 164 solid Democrat seats with 106 competitive seats nationwide. The slight overall Democrat advantage in single transferable vote reflects the fact that our current election environment has been favorable for Democrats given that they have won the popular vote for president in each of the elections in this data set.

At first glance, our current system appears to be more competitive; it has more competitive seats with fewer total seats. Indeed, competitive seats make up 24% of our current seats, but only 14% of the seats in single transferable vote. However, it is important to remember that the 696 representatives in single transferable vote come from only 139 multi-member districts. So, 99 out 139 districts, or 71%, have competitive seats in them. Parties will have to fight for your vote in a large majority of districts nationwide instead of only a handful of competitive districts.

Of course, this all this analysis was done using data from elections under our current system. Single transferable vote should change both voter and party behavior. The average five-member district requires a candidate to get only 16.7% of the vote to earn a seat in Congress. This is a much more reachable benchmark for third parties, particularly if they target certain winnable seats.

Aside from our current third parties, the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, coalitions in our major parties could split off into new parties without fear of siphoning off votes for their preferred major party candidates. Two obvious coalitions that could be immediately successful as new parties in a single transferable vote system would be the Progressives and the Trumpists. Both have shown dissatisfaction with the two major parties and could vote for their own candidates in single transferable vote without hurting the overall coalition.

I hope everyone can see that single transferable vote is not a Democrat vs. Republican or liberal vs. conservative policy. It is a people policy. It helps all of us be better represented and allows us to maximize our voice and choice in electoral politics.